TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND THE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN IN FIELD CROPS: UNITED STATES, 1939-78

In the past four decades, productivity in United States field crops has been transformed by the mechanical and fertilizer revolutions. Since input data are typically not available by crop, most investigators of productivity have been at the aggregate level. This paper developps a simultaneous equation, partial adjustment model of the demand of inputs, which generates estimates of the technical change parameters for wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton. These estimates allow comparisons of the factor saving biases in technical change, leading to a novel test of the induced innovation hypothesis and the suggestion that the productivity slowdown may yet affect agriculture in the United States.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

CAN GM-TECHNOLOGIES HELP AFRICAN SMALLHOLDERS? THE IMPACT OF BT COTTON IN THE MAKHATHINI FLATS OF KWAZULU-NATAL

Analysis of a survey of the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 seasons for the same 100 smallholders in the Makhathini Flats region of KwaZulu-Natal shows that Bt cotton has performed better than other varieties. Having two years of data for the same farmers allows innate efficiency differences, due to factors such as farm size, to be separated from the effects of the new technology, which is not normally possible. Farmers who adopted Bt cotton in 1999-2000 benefited according to all the measures used. Higher yields and lower chemical costs outweighed higher seed costs, giving higher gross margins. These measures showed negative benefits in 1998-99, which conflicts with continued adoption, but stochastic efficiency frontier estimation, which takes account of the labor saved, showed that adopters averaged 88% efficiency, as compared with 66% for the non-adopters. In 1999/2000, when late rains lowered yields, the gap widened to 74% for adopters and 48% for non-adopters.KwaZulu-Natal, Bt cotton, Stochastic Frontiers, Efficiency, Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Technical innovation and farm productivity growth in dryland Africa: The effects of structural adjustment on smallholders in Kenya

This paper uses non-parametric approach to measure technical innovation and productivity growth at the smallholder farm-level in dry-land sub-Saharan Africa during the initial years of the structural adjustment programmes for agriculture. Data from Kenya for two production years, 1991/2 and 1995/6 are used to construct a Malmquist productivity index. The results show that the rise in input prices led to reduced use of modern inputs, so that efficiency increased at 12% per year. However, lower use of modern varieties and less fertiliser also gave technological regression at 2.5% per annum, so that the overall outcome was productivity growth of 3% per annum. However, productivity improvement cannot be sustainable without technological progress.Farm Management, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FARM SIZE AND THE TECHNICAL INEFFICIENCY OF PRODUCTION OF WHEAT FARMERS IN THE EASTERN FREE STATE

Some comments are required to put in perspective the results obtained by Ngwenya, Battese and Fleming (1997). In particular, it is necessary to examine their main conclusion that in 1988/89 there was a significant inverse relationship between the technical inefficiency of wheat farmers in the Eastern Free State and farm size, because this is in direct contrast with the findings of Van Zyl, Binswanger and Thirtle (1995) who used the same dataset.Crop Production/Industries,

Production Incentives for Small Scale Farmers in Zimbabwe: The Case of Cotton and Maize

The paper presents an empirical investigation of the production response of small scale producers of maize and cotton for communal agriculture in Zimbabwe. The error correction model, which employs the concept of cointegration to avoid spurious regressions, is used in the analysis. The factors affecting maize output were the price of maize relative to seed, the number of marketing depots established in the communal areas and the number of loans provided to these farmers. The factors affecting cotton output were the increase in communal lands due to the resettlement program, the number of loans extended to small scale farmers and the price of cotton relative to seed. The weather played the most significant role in determining the quantity of maize sold.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

THE IMPACT OF RESEARCH LED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ON POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA, ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA

Twenty percent of the world population, or 1.2 billion live on less than $1 per day; 70$144 and in Asia $180, or 50 cents per day, but this is covered by output growth. By contrast, the per capita cost for the richer countries of Latin America is over$11,000.Agricultural Productivity, Poverty Reduction, Food Security and Poverty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, 011, 013, 015,

Efficiency and Pooling in Western Cape Wine Grape Production

This paper uses a stochastic frontier and inefficiency model to test the efficiency of grape production in the Western Cape. The data covers two panels of wine grape farms (34 in Robertson and 36 in Worcester) for 2003 and 2004 and 37 table grape farms in De Doorns for 2004 only. Tests show that Cobb Douglas stochastic production frontiers, with variables to explain the inefficiencies are an appropriate representation of the five individual samples. The stochastic frontier results indicate that output can be explained by land, labour and machinery and that efficiency cab be affected by labour quality, age and education of the farmer, location, the percentage of non-bearing vines and expenditures on electricity for irrigation. These data is sufficiently good to produce reasonable results without pooling, but most applied economists would consider the possibility of improving the estimates by pooling the samples. However, pooling tests show that in this situation with small samples, when pooling is permissible it may not be helpful. More effort on determining the true distributions is needed to improve the way such samples are handled and Bayesian methods may be helpful in this respect.Crop Production/Industries, O13, Q12,

Agricultural technology, productivity and employment: Policies for poverty reduction

This paper begins by arguing that agricultural economics has an important contribution to make to the economic transition of the new democratic South Africa. Policies are required to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality, but does the work of agricultural economists provide the policy makers with the information necessary to make the correct choices? In this context, we update our recent work on technology, efficiency and productivity in South African agriculture, for both the commercial and smallholder sub-sectors. For the commercial sector, this means extending the total factor productivity index and estimates of the demand for labour. For the smallholder sector, there are new results on the impacts of GM cotton and white maize on output and employment. However, this piecemeal approach treats the two sectors as entirely separate, when they are actually interdependent. Thus, a Ricardian model of dualistic agriculture is used to explain the historical development of dualism in agriculture, especially how the native agriculturalists were impoverished by the colonists. Then this model is adapted to resemble the Harris-Todaro model of urban unemployment is order to represent the present dual agricultural sector. This allows the current policy options to be compared, although real data is needed to estimate the relationships and so the full analysis remains incomplete.Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,

What is the appropriate level of aggregation for productivity indices? Comparing district, regional and national measures

This paper examines the appropriate level of aggregation for the construction of total factor productivity (TFP) indices. The dataset covers the magisterial districts and statistical regions of the Western Cape for the years 1952 to 2002. Over these five decades agricultural production in the Western Cape grew twice as fast as in the country as a whole but this average masks substantial regional variation. Results show that TFP growth was negative in the Karoo, moderate in the Swartland, Overberg and Southern Cape, and generally above 2% per year in the Boland and Breede River Valleys, where there is extensive irrigation.Total factor productivity, Western Cape, South Africa, Agribusiness,

Multi-factor agricultural productivity and convergence in Botswana, 1981-96

This paper calculates multi-lateral Malmquist multi-factor productivity (MFP) indices for agriculture in the eighteen regions and the commercial sector of Botswana from 1981 to 1996. The Malmquist is appropriate because prices do really exist for major inputs such as land and labour. The small size of the cross section is overcome by using the sequential version of the Malmquist, which accumulates the annual data, so increasing the stability of the frontier. The regional MFPs are the natural peer group for producing a national MFP, so the problem of choosing peers, in earlier work on international comparisons does not arise. The results show that the national MFP grew at an average rate 1.57% per annum. However, disaggregation by enterprise shows that the livestock MFP declined at a rate of 0.34% per annum while that for crops grew at 3.37% per annum. Decomposition of the Malmquist shows that there was positive technological change combined with decreasing efficiency. Comparisons of the regional results show a very clear pattern whereby the advantaged regions are able to exploit new technologies whereas the resource poor, geographically disadvantaged areas have been stagnant and have thereby fallen further and further behind the best practice frontier.Productivity Analysis,